Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Surrender Across Battles

Citation: Todd C. Lehmann, Yuri M. Zhukov (2018) Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Surrender Across Battles.
Internet Archive Scholar (search for fulltext): Until the Bitter End? The Diffusion of Surrender Across Battles
Wikidata (metadata): Q61774154
Download: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/zhukov/files/2017 lehmannzhukov surrender 201706.pdf
Tagged:

Summary

Hypothesis: Battlefield surrender is increasing in the amount of information soldiers receive about high rates of surrender in previous battles.

Authors review existing accounts: ideology, military discipline, regime, type, international law, unit cohesion, mutual surveillance, and military effectiveness. The first 9 are consistent with author's hypothesis, which nonetheless diverges in allowing expectations to change as soldiers receive more information and works across units and battles.

Data includes participant data for 597 battles from 82 conflicts, covering 83 percent of interstate conflicts in Correlates of War 1939-2011, yielding a total sample size of 1,720 battle-dyads.

Find strong support for contagion model, and some for further effects of lower expected costs of surrender, due to opponent having signed Geneva Convention, or commander having surrendered in past (thus less credible as punisher).