Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

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Citation: Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand.

doi: 10.25561/77482 Wikidata: Q87803531

Download: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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Summary:

Authors describe a model of COVID-19 disease transmission and progression, and 5 interventions to mitigate or suppress transmission: Case isolation in the home, Voluntary home quarantine, Social distancing of those over 70 years of age, Social distancing of entire population, and Closure of schools and universities. Find that a combination of multiple interventions is needed, and only suppression can avoid overwhelming health systems and large death counts.