Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Citation: Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand.
Authors describe a model of COVID-19 disease transmission and progression, and 5 interventions to mitigate or suppress transmission: Case isolation in the home, Voluntary home quarantine, Social distancing of those over 70 years of age, Social distancing of entire population, and Closure of schools and universities. Find that a combination of multiple interventions is needed, and only suppression can avoid overwhelming health systems and large death counts.