Effects of Various Causes on the Chances of Death and Longevity

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Citation: Preston, Samuel H. (1976) Effects of Various Causes on the Chances of Death and Longevity.
Internet Archive Scholar (search for fulltext): Effects of Various Causes on the Chances of Death and Longevity
Tagged: death (RSS), longevity (RSS)

Summary

Notes: The aim of this chapter is to demonstrate the typical amount by which life is shortened as a consequence of an individual cause of death, and the likelihood that a person will die from a particular underlying cause during the 20th century. The basic assumption on which the calculations are based in that the underlying causes of death are independent of one another (like in a multiple decrement life table). As life expectancy in a population increase, the probability of dying from other infectious and parasitic diseases (excluding respiratory TB) declines quite regularly. The probability of dying from cardiovascular diseases rises a whole bunch, from about 10% to 60% over the observed range of mortality. This rise is completely caused by the more rapid disappearance of other causes of death. Finally, the changes of dying from violence (suicide, homicide, and accidents) are relatively invariant with the level of life expectancy. According to results from an OLS regression, at a life expectancy of 25, approximately 60% of those born will ultimately die of an infectious or parasitic disease, including influenza, pneumonia, bronchitis, diarrheal diseases, and maternal mortality. Less than 10% of those born in places where life expectancy is 75 or 80 die from this group of causes. However, as life expectancy increases from 25 to 75/80, the chance of dying from the combo of neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases increase from 15% to 75%. At low life expectancies, however, the probability of dying from cardiovascular disease or cancer is increased considerably if one survives to age 15. Preston then estimates the gain in life expectancy that would result from the complete elimination of a cause, holding age-specific death rates from other causes constant. In high mortality populations, the cause being eliminated itself tends to have higher death rates, thereby producing a larger gain in life from its hypothetical elimination; however, persons saved from dying from that cause tend to live shorter lives than in a lower mortality population since death rates from the other causes of death are also in general higher. The gain in years of life form elimination most of the infectious-type diseases is much higher in high mortality populations. In contrast, neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, and violence shorten life by larger amounts in low mortality populations. Regardless of initial level of mortality, the elimination of deaths from infectious diseases plus those associated (induced, made worse, whatever) by them produces a life expectancy of 72-76 for females and 69-72.5 for males. It seems as if the mortality profile of an advanced country is typically present in every population, awaiting only a successful attack on infectious diseases before emerging. The social value of an extra year of life depends upon the age at which it will be lived. Infectious diseases take a heavy toll of lives during the productive years as well as in childhood. Respiratory diseases are responsible for the largest foreshortening of productive life at the lowest life expectancies. While TB never ranks above third in year lost at birth, it is first over a majority of mortality levels for both sexes in terms of loss of productive life. The effects of cardiovascular disease are so heavily concentrated above age 65 that is it not an important source of lost productive years.