Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the European Union?

From AcaWiki
Jump to: navigation, search

Citation: Lesthaeghe, Ron, Willems, Paul (1999) Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the European Union?. Population and Development Review (Volume 25) (RSS)
Internet Archive Scholar (search for fulltext): Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the European Union?
Tagged: uw-madison (RSS), wisconsin (RSS), sociology (RSS), demography (RSS), prelim (RSS), qual (RSS), WisconsinDemographyPrelimAugust2009 (RSS)

Summary

The authors use the Bongaarts-Feeney method based on birth-order-specific data. They concluded that the beginning of the fertility decline in Italy and Belgium was a decline in quantum rather than a decline due to postponement (tempo) effects. In fn France the postponement effect is more evident in the 1970s. In the 1980-1990 period, the fertility declines were smaller than in the previous decade, but the postponement effect was much larger. The authors conclude that the Bongaarts-Feeney model is an useful tool to explain the extent to which timing delays childbearing have depressed the period rates in the past. However, this method has a strong assumption that the quantum effect is constant, and this may not be the case in the future. Therefore, the authors use a different approach to evaluate fertility prospectively. In this case, they make explicit assumptions regarding the future cohort behavior and the possible scenarios of fertility recuperation. They find that period fertility rates would increase if cohorts recuperate their fertility by 50 or 100%, however they would still be below replacement level in most cases. Finally, the authors conclude that gains in female education and participation in the labor force, continued ideational change and further increases in union instability foster major tempo drift.