Predicting unmarried childbearing: Evidence from NSFH2 on family values and social policy

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Citation: Bumpass, Larry, Brandon, Peter (1996) Predicting unmarried childbearing: Evidence from NSFH2 on family values and social policy.
Internet Archive Scholar (search for fulltext): Predicting unmarried childbearing: Evidence from NSFH2 on family values and social policy
Tagged: uw-madison (RSS), wisconsin (RSS), sociology (RSS), demography (RSS), prelim (RSS), qual (RSS), WisconsinDemographyPrelimAugust2009 (RSS)

Summary

The analysis takes advantage of the longitudinal data provided by the 1992-94 reinterview of the National Survey of Family and Households (NSFH2) of the 1987-88 respondents to the NSFH1. The authors focus on the experience of unmarried childbearing over the approximately 6-year interval for the sample that was unmarried and under age 35 at the first interview. The analysis consisted of 2 parts, with a distinction between planned and unplanned births in each. In the first part of the paper they examined the effects on subsequent unmarried childbearing of background variables, socioeconomic characteristics and relevant family attitudes at the first interview. In the second part, they merged a file representing the AFDC benefits potentially available to each respondent based on the state of residence and number of children in each year. Results indicate that rates are NOT higher among women with a prior unmarried birth. Rates are NOT higher among those receiving welfare at first interview, however, as expected from theory, effects of benefit levels are found only among planned births to low-income women. Nonetheless, controlling for contextual factors markedly reduces these effects and makes them nonsignificant. Their judgment is that there is no causal effect of AFDC benefit levels on unmarried childbearing. Facts: - Divorce rates have been constant recently in U.S.; - Half of all single parent families are formed by birth rather than by divorce (Bumpass and Raley 1995); - RELIGION: There is also little support for the role of more traditional religious or family orientation in reducing unmarried childbearing. - RACE: Higher rates among blacks than whites are stronger among unplanned births.